Nov 10–14, 2025 Economic Preview

📊 U.S. Economic Calendar – Week 46 (Nov 10–14, 2025)

Focus Assets: SPY • Crypto/USD • TSLA

Published by VanderX Options Trading

This week’s macro spotlight centers on inflation data, consumer strength, and labor resilience—three variables shaping the Fed’s next rate decision.

Below is your high-impact breakdown of U.S. events, how each could move the markets, and specific asset reactions for SPY, Crypto/USD, and Tesla.

Thursday – Nov 13, 2025

🧾 Initial Jobless Claims (High Impact)

• Type: Weekly unemployment filings at 08:30 ET.
• Why It Matters: Real-time gauge of labor-market health that guides Fed bias.

• Scenario 1 – Claims Fall (Labor Stays Tight):
  • SPY: Stable growth but limits rate-cut hopes; mild upside capped by yield pressure.
  • Crypto/USD: USD gains on hawkish tone; Bitcoin and Ethereum can fade near resistance.
  • TSLA: Solid demand backdrop but valuation headwind from higher real yields.
• Scenario 2 – Claims Rise (Labor Cooling):
  • SPY: Short-term risk-off, later strength if “Fed pivot” narrative builds.
  • Crypto/USD: Volatile; weakness first, then recovery if easing bets rise.
  • TSLA: Weak consumer demand offsets lower-rate benefit.

Friday – Nov 14, 2025

🏭 Producer Price Index (PPI & Core PPI)

• Time: 08:30 ET
• Focus: Wholesale inflation pressures and corporate margins.

• Hot PPI:
  • SPY: Bearish—margin squeeze; higher rates.
  • Crypto/USD: Supports USD; weakens BTC/ETH.
  • TSLA: Margin risk + rate sensitivity = downside bias.
• Soft PPI:
  • SPY: Bullish; supports disinflation story.
  • Crypto/USD: USD softens; supports crypto rebound.
  • TSLA: Cost easing + lower yields favor upside.

🛍️ Retail Sales (Headline & Ex-Autos)

• Time: 08:30 ET
• Focus: Consumer spending strength heading into holidays.

• Strong Sales:
  • SPY: Growth support; possible yield uptick caps upside.
  • Crypto/USD: USD firming; crypto may pause.
  • TSLA: Consumer resilience supports EV demand despite valuation pressure.
• Weak Sales:
  • SPY: Cyclicals lag; defensives rotate higher.
  • Crypto/USD: Short dip then rebound on rate-cut bets.
  • TSLA: Discretionary softness; possible underperformance.

Possible Midweek – CPI (October)

• Hot CPI:
  • SPY: Pullback as yields spike.
  • Crypto/USD: USD up; BTC/ETH sentiment fades.
  • TSLA: Most rate-sensitive; faces sharp pressure.
• Cool CPI:
  • SPY: Relief rally; soft-landing revived.
  • Crypto/USD: Liquidity improves; BTC/ETH bid.
  • TSLA: Lower discount rates boost multiples.

Weekly Macro Themes

• Inflation & Consumer Dual Test: PPI + Retail Sales show inflation vs demand.
• SPY vs. Real Yields: Yields up = valuation cap; yields down = rally fuel.
• Crypto/USD Liquidity Gauge: Hawkish = USD strength; dovish = BTC/ETH recovery.
• TSLA Sensitivity: Best case: cool inflation + firm sales. Worst: hot inflation + weak sales.

Disclaimer: Educational analysis only. Confirm data times and sources before trading.

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